In 2007 Rwanda launched a campaign to promote 3 children families and a program of community based health services to improve reproductive health. This paper argues that mixed gender offspring is still an important insurance for old age in Rwanda and that to arrive at the desired gender composition women might have to progress beyond parity 3. The analyses are twofold. The first is the parity progression desire given the gender of living children. The second is gender specific replacement intention following the loss of the last or only son or daughter. Using the Demographic and Health Surveys of 2000, 2005, and 2010, we show that child mortality does not lead to extra parity progression beyond three, while having single gender offspring does and even more so when this is the result of the loss of the last son or daughter.
In 2007, the Government of Rwanda started a discussion about the introduction of legislation that should regulate family size to a maximum of three children. The debate has continued ever since. The government emphasizes that, given Rwanda’s very high population density and its agricultural based economy, the poverty reduction strategies are hampered by the current high population growth of nearly 3% per year [
As a result Rwanda is making a substantial progress in reaching its Millennium Development Goals [
Considering the change in the demographic variables summarized in Table
Changes in child mortality, fertility, and desired family size in Rwanda.
2000 | 2005 | 2010 | |
---|---|---|---|
Infant mortality | 107 | 86 | 50 |
Under five mortality | 196 | 152 | 76 |
Total Fertility Rate | 5.8 | 6.1 | 4.6 |
Ideal family size | 4.9 | 4.3 | 3.3 |
Unmet need for contraceptive | 36% | 38% | 24% |
Use of modern contraception | 4% | 10% | 45% |
Source: RDHS 2000 [
In this contribution the link between fertility and gender preference as well as between fertility and mortality will be analyzed. By using three Demographic and Health Survey cross-sectional datasets (DHS-2000 [
Studies about replacement or insurance effects on fertility behavior have been published also for African countries, but hardly any study is published about the link between the gender composition of the offspring and fertility intentions [
This paper has the following research objectives: to show the extent to which women with at least three living children, but lacking sons or daughters are more likely to desire extra births to achieve a more balanced gender composition of their offspring; to highlight the effect of the loss of the only or last son or daughter on women’s desire to continue childbearing at parity 3 or over in Rwanda.
The outline of this study is organized as follows. Section
Like elsewhere in the world, people in Rwanda prefer to have both sons and daughters. This is shown in one of the traditional blessing by family and friends to new couples after the wedding ceremony when people say
A strong gender preference among parents, in particular son preference, is related to nonexchangeable gender roles in a society which stem from economic, social, cultural, religious, and/or psychological contexts ([
The few available studies for Sub-Sahara African countries on gender preference point at a slight son preference (see [
Traditional culture and customs in Rwanda are based on a patrilineal kinship system and lineage-based kinship relations are still important for mutual support [
On the other hand, certain farming and marriage practices illustrate that in Rwanda wives and daughters have an important economic value for their family as well. Like in many Sub-Sahara African countries farming work in Rwanda is performed by both men and women, although the so-called gender specific and gender sequential activities also exist [
After 1994, the Government of Rwanda has been formulating and implementing new laws geared to equal rights for men and women. As a consequence, institutional and social systems are in transition. The new Inheritance Law of 1999 does not distinguish anymore between sons and daughters. For the inheritance of land, a scarce production asset in the Rwandan context, this means that land may pass to daughters. However, another law inhibits land fragmentation in parcels below a certain size. It is expected that in that case, fathers will prefer to give their land to sons, following former customary tenure systems (Bledsoe 2003 cited in Lastarria-Cornhiel [
A more in-depth insight in the gender preferences—fertility behavior linkage will be gained if experiences with child mortality according to gender are added to the analysis. The impact of infant and child mortality on fertility behavior has been studied extensively, also for Africa [
In case of son preference and perceived or experienced risk of infant/child mortality one expects that subsequent births will occur more often after the loss of sons compared to the loss of daughters. For India, Das [
For the analyses in this study three cross-sectional secondary datasets from the Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys are used (DHS held in 2000, 2005, and 2010). The DHS dataset is known to be an international reliable database because it follows strict sampling, surveying, and data file procedures and are made by well-trained enumerators and experienced staff. The women’s questionnaire is used to collect information on all women in the age 15–49 years and covers a wide range of topics including the background of the respondents, her reproductive history, her knowledge and use of contraceptive methods, the antenatal, child-birth, and postpartum care received, vaccination, and childhood illnesses to mention a few of them.
The dependent variable in our analyses is the desire to have a next child. We used the answers to two questions related to fertility intentions in the questionnaire. Women who were either not pregnant or unsure about their status were asked the question: “
As we wanted to test the impact of the composition of the offspring according to gender on women’s desire to have another child and the impact of gender-specific mortality experiences, we restricted our analysis to women with at least three living children at the moment of the interview. In total 12831 women, subdivided in 3745 women for the year 2000, 4219 women for 2005, and 4867 for 2010, fulfilled these selection conditions.
Key independent variables in this study are the gender of living children and the loss of all children of a specific gender prior to the dates of interview. We did not include the parity of the deceased infant(s) in our model, consequently we did not check if (one of) the dead child (ren) was the index child (last born). Women were subdivided into those having both sons and daughters alive, or those having only girls or only boys alive. In reference to prior infant and child mortality experience by gender, women were classified into those with three or more living children of mixed gender with and without any mortality experience. For those who have daughters only, we distinguish the ones that never had a son from those that lost their last or only son. The same distinction was made for those that have sons only. In a bid to highlight the strength covered by gender specific replacement desire, we have included in our model demographic, socio-economic, and sociocultural control variables.
The first demographic variable is the number of living children. As the chances of arriving at mixed gender increase with parity, controlling for this variable implies that we are not confusing gender imbalance effects with overall desired parity progression.
Age over 30 years is used as a continuous variable in the analysis. This demographic variable is important to take into account as it is related to fecundity and fertility experiences and therefore to the capability and wish to have a next child or not.
For marital status we divided the women in two categories: those in formal (married) or informal unions (living together) and those without a partner (single, separated, or widowed). Informal unions are accepted and common in Rwanda. Becoming pregnant without an identifiable partner is a strong taboo in Rwanda. These types of pregnancies or births are commonly known as IKINYENDARO, which means a pregnancy/birth coming from a lodge and not from a normal and socially accepted home. We expect that for this reason marital status influences the answers given by women on the main question (dependent variable) about wanting another child. A woman without a partner at the time of the interview could have a wish for a next child, but might not go to further parities given the taboo on children out of wedlock and because of the unfavorable conditions that she has to raise her children without economic and time support of a partner [
As an overall indicator of the socioeconomic status of the household of the mother, the living, housing, and hygienic conditions were preferred to the usual wealth index in the Demographic and Health Surveys Reports, for two reasons. Living and hygienic conditions have a direct relationship with the health (morbidity and mortality risks) of family members. Besides, the DHS wealth index does not distinguish between the poorest of the poor from other poor households [
For that reason we used an index constructed on various assets mentioned by respondents in the Individual Questionnaire. This questionnaire includes questions concerning the household’s ownership of consumer items (telephone, radio); dwelling characteristics such as flooring material; type of drinking water source; toilet facilities, available energy sources, and so forth. We classified the respondents without the listed consumer goods and with poor hygienic (no access to safe drinking water and bad hygienic toilet facilities) and poor housing conditions (uncovered floors) as extreme poor. The category of poor women includes the ones with few possessions, with poor or moderate housing conditions, and with no connection to the water mains. We classified respondents that are living in houses with ceramic tiles, cement or carpet, were in possession of a radio and telephone, and with access to safe drinking water (piped system into their dwelling) as nonpoor.
The variable women’s occupation was divided into four categories, house-wives (those who are not employed), women who are employed in agriculture, women who are employed as unskilled or manual workers (blue collar) and those in managerial, clerical or services positions (white collar). We control for this variable to see if work activities of the mother—a well-known but counterfactual socio-economic determinant of fertility behavior [
The exposure to media is known to be an important channel for behavioral change in general and in family planning in particular [
Religion is another sociocultural factor in shaping fertility preferences and behavior [
The percentage of women with three or more living children who want to have another child.
Variable name | Year | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2005 | 2010 | ||||
Yes % | Total# | Yes % | Total# | Yes % | Total# | |
Gender balance and mortality | ||||||
Mixed offspring: no mortality (Ref) | 34.7 | 1479 | 29.7 | 1705 | 16.3 | 2312 |
Mixed offspring: lost either sex | 23.2 | 1850 | 19.7 | 2006 | 9.7 | 1933 |
Sons only: no loss of daughter(s) | 53.6 | 151 | 38.7 | 181 | 26.0 | 242 |
Daughters only: no loss of son(s) | 58.1 | 129 | 42.7 | 157 | 34.1 | 205 |
Sons only: lost daughter(s) | 36.7 | 60 | 34.9 | 86 | 23.8 | 84 |
Daughters only: lost son(s) | 38.2 | 76 | 35.7 | 84 | 20.9 | 91 |
Marital status | ||||||
Married or living together | 40.3 | 2676 | 31.9 | 3284 | 17.8 | 3954 |
Widowed/divorced/separated | 6.6 | 1069 | 5.6 | 935 | 3.3 | 913 |
Media exposure | ||||||
No exposure (Ref) | 30.3 | 3009 | 25.5 | 3265 | 15.0 | 3183 |
Radio and newsletter | 34.5 | 357 | 30.5 | 609 | 14.2 | 402 |
TV | 30.3 | 379 | 23.5 | 345 | 15.8 | 1282 |
Housing and hygienic conditions | ||||||
Destitute | 28.9 | 1414 | 24.0 | 1414 | 15.3 | 1180 |
Poor | 32.1 | 1494 | 27.3 | 1942 | 15.2 | 2426 |
Nonpoor | 31.1 | 837 | 26.3 | 863 | 14.8 | 1261 |
Education | ||||||
None | 25.3 | 1613 | 20.8 | 1493 | 10.5 | 1248 |
Primary | 35.2 | 1772 | 29.3 | 2354 | 17.1 | 3151 |
Secondary and higher | 32.8 | 360 | 26.1 | 372 | 13.9 | 468 |
Respondent’s occupation | ||||||
No occupation | 29.4 | 520 | 27.3 | 718 | 17.3 | 446 |
Agriculture | 31.5 | 2894 | 26.4 | 3102 | 14.6 | 3863 |
Blue collar jobs (unskilled) | 25.8 | 217 | 23.1 | 273 | 17.1 | 462 |
White collar jobs (managers; clerks …) | 23.7 | 114 | 16.7 | 126 | 14.6 | 96 |
Residence | ||||||
Urban (Ref) | 25.9 | 691 | 22.0 | 829 | 14.1 | 623 |
Rural | 31.8 | 3054 | 27.0 | 3390 | 15.2 | 4244 |
Mothers’ religion | ||||||
Catholics (Ref) | NA | NA | 24.7 | 1951 | 12.1 | 2151 |
Protestants | NA | NA | 27.7 | 1504 | 18.8 | 1860 |
Adventists | NA | NA | 27.1 | 564 | 15.8 | 676 |
Muslims | NA | NA | 17.7 | 96 | 5.6 | 72 |
No Religion | NA | NA | 26.7 | 75 | 14.0 | 100 |
| ||||||
Total | 3745 | 4219 | 4867 |
Sources: RDHS 2000 [
A bivariate design was used to check the effect of gender composition and the loss of sons and daughters with
Our first results describe the change in gender preferences over the years (Table
Preferred gender combinations in 2000, 2005, and 2010 of women having three children or more.
Year | Prefered number of boys | Prefered number of girls | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No preference | 1 daughter | 2 daughters | 3 or more daughters | Total | ||
No Pref. |
|
8 (0.2%) | 9 (0.2%) | 2 (0.1%) | 490 (13.1%) | |
2000 | 1 son | 8 (0.2%) |
|
67 (1.8%) | 33 (0.9%) | 286 (7.6%) |
2 sons | 4 (0.1%) | 129 (3.4%) |
|
351 (9.4%) | 1446 (38.6%) | |
3 and more | 5 (0.1%) | 76 (2.0%) | 393 (10.5%) |
|
1523 (40.7%) | |
| ||||||
Total | 488 (13.0%) | 391 (10.4%) | 1431 (38.2%) | 1435 (38.3%) | 3745 (100%) | |
| ||||||
No Pref. |
|
4 (0.1%) | 5 (0.1%) | 5 (0.1%) | 659 (15.6%) | |
2005 | 1 son | 9 (0.2%) |
|
80 (1.9%) | 23 (0.5%) | 358 (8.5%) |
2 sons | 15 (0.4%) | 188 (4.5%) |
|
285 (6.8%) | 1916 (45.4%) | |
3 and more | 10 (0.2%) | 92 (2.2%) | 394 (9.3%) |
|
1286 (30.5%) | |
| ||||||
Total | 679 (16.1%) | 530 (12.6%) | 1907 (45.2%) | 1103 (26.1%) | 4219 (100%) | |
| ||||||
No Pref. |
|
3 (0.1%) | 5 (0.1%) | 2 (0.0%) | 1147 (23.6%) | |
2010 | 1 son | 16 (0.3%) | 470 (9.7%) | 256 (5.3%) | 23 (0.5%) | 765 (15.7%) |
2 sons | 10 (0.2%) |
|
|
187 (3.8%) | 2083 (42.8%) | |
3 and more | 19 (0.4%) | 75 (1.5%) | 283 (5.8%) |
|
872 (17.9%) | |
| ||||||
Total | 1182 (24.3%) | 1103 (22.7%) | 1875 (38.5%) | 707 (14.5%) | 4867 (100%) |
In 2000 the modal category is having a combination of three or more of each (28%), directly followed by having two of each (25%). In 2005 the ideal family size dropped and having two sons and two daughters is the most preferred (34%) composition, which is also the case in 2010, but in that year having no preference for either sons or daughters is the second most popular response.
At an uneven number of offspring, boys are clearly preferred to girls. In each year, twice as many women prefer having two sons and one daughter over having two daughters and one son. In later years the (smaller) numbers that want five of more children prefer three sons and two daughters over three daughters and two sons.
At first sight one may therefore conclude that pressure to limit the maximum number of children to three will shift the gender preference balance towards male offspring. Yet the number of women who state not to have any preferences is growing very rapidly and nearly doubled in 10 years of time, and fifteen percent of our population see the combination of one son and one or two daughters as an ideal alternative. Close to fifty percent could probably live with having three children, but half of these want to have at least one son and one daughter.
In our multivariate model (Table
Binary logistic regression of the desire to have another child for women with at least three children (pooled data 2000, 2005, and 2010).
Variable |
|
|
S.E | Odds Ratios | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gender balance and mortality |
|
||||
Mixed offspring: no mortality (Ref) | 5496 | ||||
Mixed offspring: lost either sex | 5789 | −.056 | .058 | .945 | |
Sons only: no loss of daughter(s) | 574 | .102 | .108 | 1.108 | |
Daughters only: no loss of son(s) | 491 |
|
|
|
|
Sons only: lost daughter(s) | 230 |
|
|
|
|
Daughters only: lost son(s) | 251 |
|
|
|
|
Year of interview | |||||
2000 (Ref) | 3745 | ||||
2005 | 4219 | − |
|
|
|
2010 | 4867 | − |
|
|
|
Number of living children (−3) | − |
|
|
||
Current age of the mother (−30) | − |
|
|
||
Marital status | |||||
In a union (Ref) | 9914 | ||||
Single/separated/widowed | 2917 | − |
|
|
|
Media exposure | |||||
No exposure (Ref) | 9457 | ||||
Radio and newsletter | 1368 | −.027 | .080 | .974 | |
TV | 2006 | .023 | .082 | 1.023 | |
Housing and hygienic conditions | |||||
Destitute (Ref) | 9457 | ||||
Poor | 1368 |
|
|
|
|
Nonpoor | 2006 | .028 | .078 | .721 | |
Respondents’ education level | |||||
None (Ref) | 4354 | ||||
Primary | 7277 | .015 | .059 | 1.015 | |
Secondary and higher | 1200 | −.025 | .111 | .975 | |
Respondents’ occupation | |||||
None (Ref) | 1684 | ||||
Agriculture | 9859 | .054 | .077 | 1.056 | |
Blue collar | 952 | .034 | .116 | 1.034 | |
White collar | 336 |
|
|
|
|
Place of residence | |||||
Place of residence (Urban)Ref | 2143 | ||||
Place of residence (Rural) | 10688 |
|
|
|
|
| |||||
Constant | .401 | .119 | 1.493 |
Significance:
As previous studies have hypothesized, women’s reproductive behavior (fertility) is influenced by existing mortality patterns in terms of replacement and insurance strategies. But, in many cases, studies have focused on the replacement of the index child who dies before parents reach the desired number of children [
The results in Table
Insurance effects may be expected if sons or daughters are lacking, in particular in absence of replacement. The third and fourth category of our variable defines the women with sons and daughters only, without having lost children of the opposite gender. Parity progression after three is higher in both cases, but insignificant for those that have sons only. Support in old age seems to be more dependent on the presence of a son than of a daughter.
Both replacement and insurance effects are bound to occur, when people lose their last or only son or daughter. The results of the model show that this is indeed the case. The ones that had at least one daughter but lost all have higher odds to continue childbearing. The effect is also strong among women that had at least one son but lost all the odds ratio is close to 1.5.
The effect of the year of the interview is very prominent, with an odds ratio of 0.234 for 2010 over 2000. The fact that we did not find any interaction effect of this variable with the variable on gender balance and mortality (not shown) indicates that the slight preference for having and replacing sons has not increased significantly over the years. However it also means that losing the last son or daughter has the same strong effect on parity progression in 2010 as in 2000.
For a second check of significant changes over time we ran the model separately for the year 2010. The estimated odds ratios for the gender balance and mortality variable are slightly higher (1.003; 1.162; 1.668; 1.838; 1.686 not shown here), but not significantly different from the odds ratios in the pooled set.
The control variables have the expected sign, with the exception of poverty and education that show limited or no significant relation. The absence of an interaction effect with the year of the interview indicates that the strong campaign to limit childbirth has touched upon each segment of the population in Rwanda, but does not mean that having three children is now favored by everybody. The existing heterogeneity in parity progress remains stable over time, albeit at a lower overall level.
The lack of a significant difference in the desire to stop at parity 3 between mothers of a mixed offspring with or without a loss of a child indicates that the insurance effect in concern of future mortality is not strong. Mothers do not want at least two children of each gender to be sure that they—seen the experienced risk of child mortality—will be left with a single gender family in the future. Mothers with a single gender family of three children who have lost the only or last child of the opposite sex do have a strong wish to replace that child. In other words, replacement is strongly related to the gender composition of the living children. Still having a mixed gender family does not lead to replacement, but being left with a single gender family does. These results are in keeping with conclusions of others who state that the effect of replacement on mortality is “modest in magnitude” [
Sons and daughters are almost equally important for mothers in Rwanda. We interpreted this as a fertility decline-gender preference trade off, a situation where women find a threat in echoes appealing them to stop childbearing before leveling the gender preference among their living offspring. Even though the total fertility rate has fallen from 6.1 to 4.6 between 2000 and 2010, attitudes towards filling the gender gap for families with 3 single gender living children or replacing dead infants of a specific gender for families who reported having lost all sons or all daughters have not changed over this decade.
The output of this study evidences that, even though the government might focus its effort to reduce the total fertility rate to 3 children through the provision of family planning services or sensitization campaigns, the gender composition of living children remains a corner stone to parity progression for Rwandan women even after reaching the third or higher parities. A gender specific replacement strategy driven by the desire for a mixed family composition was identified to be a strong motivation for parity progression.
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Hewlett Foundation, the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (WOTRO) for their financial support (Grant no. W0740 202 00), and to the anonymous reviewers for their stimulating and enriching comments.