Total Factor Productivity (TFP) measures the growth in output which is not accounted for by inputs. Data Envelopment Analysis which forms the basis for the computation of Malmquist TFP index is used in this paper to study the performance of different river basins in Andhra Pradesh state, India. The results indicated that average technical efficiency of all the basins is only 66%. In all the basins there was a decline in growth of agricultural output during the first two decades, viz., 1979-1980 to 1988-1989 and it had picked in the last decade (1999-2000). All the river basins have TFP change greater than 1 indicating progress in agricultural productivity. Out of the 40 river basins, 14 river basins have technical efficiency change less than 1 indicating decline in TFP growth whereas all the basins have technical changes greater than 1 implying that there is shift in production frontier over years. In general, within the TFP, technical change contributed more than technical efficiency change. Looking at the future options for increasing the agricultural output in the river basins, it is important to focus on improving the TFP growth compared to increasing the quantities of physical inputs.
In India, the share of agriculture and allied sectors in total GSDP is declining over years. For example in the case of Andhra Pradesh state which is one of the leading states in India, the share of the GSDP during 2008-09 and 2009-10 at constant (1999-2000) prices, is 26.34 and 25.34%, respectively, which was 32% during 1990s. Hence there is a growing concern on stabilizing the share of agriculture sector to the GSDP. River basins play a major role in contributing to the agricultural growth as they encompass all aspects of agriculture, namely, rainfed, irrigated, surface water and groundwater, and so forth. Hence studying the agricultural growth of the state using basin-wise data will be more relevant to formulate suitable policies for improving the performance in agricultural sector. Usually performances of the river basins are studied using various indicators such as area irrigated, area cultivated, water use efficiency, income per unit of water, and so forth, where mostly the inputs use efficiency is focused. However, it is difficult to relate the performance owing to variety of other issues such as irrigated versus rain-fed area, agriculture versus other benefits (such as livestock), management, technologies, and so forth. Hence a holistic approach to measure the growth in productivity taking into account all physical and management inputs and outputs is necessary. Further the methodology should be able to identify the sources of growth which will be important for policy makers. Total factor productivity (TFP) approach is obviously a suitable methodology to apply for such multiinput and multioutput technologies.
TFP measures the growth in output which is not accounted for by inputs. It is usually calculated as a ratio of output to input. In other words, productivity increases when growth in output surpasses growth in input. No doubt increase in inputs, if used efficiently, will produce productivity growth. But inputs are subject to diminishing marginal rates of return. Hence ideally, economists and government aim for productivity growth without an increase in inputs. However, measurement of total input and total output in a multioutput, multiinput framework is both conceptually and empirically difficult unless measurement methodologies are used effectively. In these situations, Malmquist index (MI) provides opportunities to measure growth in any production sector and in particular in agriculture.
One important area of interest for researchers and policy makers is to measure not only the levels and trends in agricultural productivity but also to identify the sources for its growth. Traditionally index number approach (e.g., Tornqvist-Theil TFP index) has been applied to estimate TFP. This approach requires historical data on quantities of all outputs, their prices, and quantities of all inputs and their costs. Further the method does not lend support for decomposition of the index into different attributable sources. But historical data on prices are not accurately available and even if they are available their accuracies are questionable because of spatial variations and other reasons. Hence new techniques which do not require price and cost data have developed. These approaches can be classified as parametric and nonparametric. The MI is a nonparametric approach based on distance functions. It is a popular tool to measure and analyze productivity growth. Most important for the study is its ability to decompose productivity growth into two mutually exclusive and exhaustive components: changes in technical efficiency over time (catching up) and shifts in technology over time (technical change). A major advantage cited in support of this methodology is that these methods do not require any price data. The objective of this paper is to study the performance of the river basins of Andhra Pradesh using total factor productivity analysis and to suggest the ways and means of improving the performance of the river basins in the state.
Methods to estimate TFP can be classified in four major groups: least-squares econometric production models, growth accounting TFP indices, stochastic frontiers [ data envelopment analysis (DEA).
The first two methods are normally used with times series data and assume that all production units are technically efficient. In the third method, which is a parametric method, a stochastic frontier is obtained for all the firms for a given year such that all the firms either lie on or below the stochastic frontier. Those firms which lie below the frontier are said to be inefficient. The frontier may shift up or down as time changes and the output growth is decomposed into technical efficiency change, technological change, and input growth [
There are a number of papers on the application of Malmquist index to study productivity growth in agriculture. Coelli and Rao [
Yuk-shing [
Rungsuriyawiboon and Lissista [
Umetsu et al. [
Linh [
More recently Palanisami et al. [
The most popular form for estimating TFP growth in the past was the Tornqvist index. The Tornqvist index calculates TFP growth based on information concerning prices, and uses cost/revenue shares as weights to aggregate inputs/outputs. However, when calculating the Törnqvist index, observed output is assumed to be equivalent to frontier output. Consequently, decomposition of the TFP growth into the movements towards (efficiency improvement) and shifts in the production frontier (technical change) is not possible.
The Malmquist productivity index has gained popularity since Färe et al. [
First of all, since the data envelopment type of analysis can be directly applied to calculate the index, the Malmquist index has the advantage of computational ease. Secondly, the Malmquist productivity index permits TFP growth to be decomposed into technological change and technical efficiency change. Further, it requires neither price information nor behavioral assumption such as cost minimization, revenue maximization, or profit maximization. So, it is less data-demanding than the Törnqvist index. This makes it preferable when prices are distorted or missing and in those cases in which producers’ objectives are different, unknown or simply unfeasible. The next section briefly describes the data envelopment analysis which forms the basis for the computation of Malmquist TFP index.
DEA is a nonparametric mathematical programming approach to frontier estimation [
DEA can be either input orientated or output-orientated. In the input orientated case, the DEA method defines the frontier by seeking the maximum possible proportional reduction in input usage (called input-oriented technical efficiency), with output levels held constant for each basin; while in the output-orientated case, it seeks the maximum proportional increase in output production (called output-oriented technical efficiency), with input levels held fixed. The two measures provide the same level of technical efficiency scores when a constant returns to scale (CRS) technology applies, but are unequal when variable returns to scale (VRS) is assumed.
In this study, we select an output orientation with assumption of constant returns-to-scale because we believe it would be fair to assume that in agriculture, one usually attempts to maximize output from a given set of inputs, rather than the converse. The DEA model with output orientation can be specified as follows:
If one has data for
It must be noted that the parameter
The above LP is solved
Distances are good tools to study multiinput and multioutput production technologies. They do not require behavioural assumptions such as cost minimization or profit maximization. Since Malmquist index is based on distance functions, a brief discussion on these functions is necessary. For this, following [
The distance function
It can be seen from the definition that the output distance function is the reciprocal of Farrell’s [
In Malmquist index we use mixed period (output-oriented) distance functions to study the productivity change over time. These are defined by
The Malmquist index measures the TFP change between two data points (e.g. those of a basin in two different time periods) by calculating the ratio of the distance of each data point relative to a common technological frontier. Following Färe et al. [
A value of
Färe et al. [
Flow chart showing Agricultural output growth contribution by TFP and inputs.
The ratio outside the square brackets measures the change in the output-oriented measure of Farrell technical efficiency between periods
The distance functions are estimated by using linear programming techniques. The methodology used in [
Given the panel data, we can calculate the required distance measures for the Malmquist TFP index using DEA-like linear programs. For the LP1:
LP2:
LP3:
LP4:
It can be noted that in LPs 3 and 4, where production points are compared to technologies from different time periods, the parameter
A good source for further details on the methodology is Coelli et al. [
Andhra Pradesh with a geographic area of 2,75,069 km2 is the fourth largest state of India by area with a population of about 76 millions and it ranks fifth position in terms of population. It has 23 districts and it is predominantly an agriculture state. It is the third largest rice-producing state with a share of 39.84% of geographical area as net sown area. Its cropping intensity was 1.27 during 2008-09. It has 62.1 lakh ha (22.6% of geographical area) as forest cover and 26.52 lakh ha are not put under agricultural use. The net irrigated area is about 48 lakh ha with a respective share of 48.2% and 34.6% for wells and canals as sources of irrigation. The state produced about 204 lakh tones of food grains and 20.6 lakh tones of oilseeds during 2008-09 [
Andhra Pradesh has a normal seasonal rainfall of about 940 mm of which 624 mm are obtained from South West Monsoon (June to September). However, all the data related to agricultural performance of the State are available only district wise which are difficult to relate with the river basin boundaries. Hence it is important to transform the district level data to basin level for making basin level comparisons. This will also help to work out the performance of both irrigation and agriculture sectors at basin level.
The 40 river basins of Andhra Pradesh state constitute the study area. Out of these, Krishna, Godavari, and Pennar are the three largest basins with respective geographical areas being 7426975 ha, 7313950 ha, and 5036365 ha and these three basins together constitute 55% of the geographical area of Andhra Pradesh. The total area under all the remaining 37 basins constitute 7696046 ha. Among these 37 basins Gundlakamma basin which falls in Guntur and Prakasam districts is the largest with an area of 813222 ha. Major share of this basin belongs to Prakasam district with an area of 646428 ha. The next largest basin is Romperu which also falls in the same two districts. It has an area of 599158 ha. The sixth largest basin is Nagavali. Its area is 526446 ha with 337268 ha belonging to Vijayanagarm district and 189178 ha belonging to Srikakulam district.
The three major river basins have the annual water yields of 41.96, 22.99, and 2.79 billion m3. It is estimated that the 37 smaller basins will be contributing 10.755 billion m3 of water annually. Thus the total supply based on 75% dependability is estimated at 78.51 billion m3 (
This study is based on district-level data exclusively drawn from the Government of Andhra Pradesh publications. The following are some of the main features of the data series used.
40 river basins in Andhra Pradesh, where the agriculture sector plays an important role in the economy.
The study covers 30 years period from 1979-80 to 2008-09.
The study uses one-output variables, namely, crops including horticultural crops output variable in value at 1981-82 constant prices. The output series for the variable is derived by aggregating detailed output quantity data of all agricultural commodities listed in Table
Total inputs used in agriculture include land, labor, tractors, pump sets, chemical fertilizers, and irrigated area.
Summary statistics: area of the basin and crop output.
Sl. no. | Area of the basin (ha) | Crop output (Rs millions) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name of the basin | Max | Min | Average | SD | CV (%) | ||
1 | Bahuda | 39093 | 172.6 | 16.1 | 126.2 | 36.8 | 31.1 |
2 | Mahendratanya | 40273 | 177.8 | 16.1 | 121.7 | 37.9 | 31.2 |
3 | Poondi minor drain | 28501 | 125.8 | 14.8 | 86.3 | 26.4 | 30.6 |
4 | Naupada minor drain | 71735 | 316.6 | 16.1 | 216.4 | 68.8 | 31.8 |
5 | Vamsadhara | 162551 | 717.5 | 16.1 | 489.6 | 158.2 | 32.3 |
6 | Nagavali | 526446 | 1297.0 | 15.5 | 985.3 | 307.5 | 31.2 |
7 | Pedda Gedda | 31276 | 138.0 | 16.1 | 94.6 | 29.1 | 30.8 |
8 | Kandivalasa Gedda | 33317 | 108.7 | 13.1 | 79.0 | 23.5 | 29.7 |
9 | Champavathi | 169731 | 337.0 | 20.2 | 213.9 | 67.6 | 31.6 |
10 | Gosthani | 156431 | 310.6 | 20.2 | 197.2 | 62.2 | 31.5 |
11 | Mathurawada | 32604 | 64.7 | 9.4 | 41.7 | 11.6 | 27.9 |
12 | Narva Gedda | 14893 | 29.6 | 4.3 | 19.4 | 5.0 | 25.5 |
13 | Anakapalli minor drain | 43709 | 86.8 | 12.5 | 55.6 | 16.1 | 28.9 |
14 | Sarada | 291111 | 578.0 | 20.2 | 366.4 | 117.5 | 32.1 |
15 | Varaha | 117278 | 232.9 | 20.2 | 148.0 | 46.1 | 31.1 |
16 | Tandava | 130327 | 269.4 | 17.8 | 177.9 | 53.7 | 30.2 |
17 | Pampa | 52284 | 214.5 | 15.2 | 144.1 | 43.4 | 30.1 |
18 | Sudda Gedda | 41794 | 171.5 | 15.2 | 115.3 | 34.4 | 29.8 |
19 | Yeleru | 354728 | 1302.5 | 14.2 | 880.9 | 269.5 | 30.6 |
20 | Godavari | 7313590 | 20653.0 | 18.8 | 12278.9 | 4180.8 | 34.0 |
21 | Errakalava | 503382 | 3431.1 | 14.4 | 2444.4 | 722.7 | 29.6 |
22 | Thammileru | 247187 | 1499.7 | 14.3 | 1058.7 | 313.3 | 29.6 |
23 | Ramileru | 112659 | 721.2 | 14.2 | 509.7 | 155.7 | 30.6 |
24 | Budameru | 521885 | 3305.8 | 15.6 | 2306.7 | 740.6 | 32.1 |
25 | Krishna | 7426975 | 20547.9 | 18.0 | 12421.7 | 4184.4 | 33.7 |
26 | Romperu | 599158 | 3728.5 | 20.6 | 2167.6 | 748.7 | 34.5 |
27 | Gundlakamma | 646428 | 1648.8 | 29.1 | 771.0 | 310.0 | 40.2 |
28 | Minor drain between Musi & |
65853 | 168.0 | 24.8 | 79.4 | 29.7 | 37.3 |
29 | Musi | 216732 | 552.8 | 29.1 | 259.2 | 102.3 | 39.5 |
30 | Paleru | 216321 | 551.7 | 29.1 | 258.7 | 102.1 | 39.5 |
31 | Manneru | 340198 | 844.0 | 20.5 | 477.1 | 165.6 | 34.7 |
32 | Kandeleru (Chippaleru) | 126376 | 363.3 | 19.5 | 210.4 | 69.6 | 33.1 |
33 | Pennar | 5036365 | 9337.3 | 16.6 | 6829.2 | 2168.5 | 31.8 |
34 | Upputeru | 329133 | 946.1 | 19.5 | 546.8 | 184.4 | 33.7 |
35 | Swarnamukhi | 338602 | 1251.5 | 23.8 | 674.1 | 228.3 | 33.9 |
36 | Kalangi | 227090 | 752.6 | 20.2 | 435.9 | 139.5 | 32.0 |
37 | Araniar | 70192 | 329.0 | 32.7 | 153.8 | 58.3 | 37.9 |
38 | Koratliar | 100042 | 468.9 | 32.7 | 218.8 | 84.1 | 38.5 |
39 | Palar | 491630 | 2304.4 | 32.7 | 1070.7 | 424.2 | 39.6 |
40 | Ponnair | 38302 | 179.5 | 32.0 | 84.5 | 30.8 | 36.5 |
This variable refers to economically active population in agriculture. Economically active population is defined as all persons engaged or seeking employment in an economic activity, whether as employers, own-account workers, salaried employees, or unpaid workers assisting in the operation of a family farm or business.
Land input is measured by area sown rather than arable land because the arable land data is extremely inaccurate. Sown area is land on which crops are planted and from which a harvest is expected. Because land is frequently sown two or even more times a year depending on climate and soil quality, sown area is substantially larger than arable land. Therefore, sown area also indicates land quality more accurately.
Total number of tractors used.
This variable covers the total number of electrical pumpsets used by farmers in the respective river basins.
Chemical fertilizer includes weights of nitrogen, superphosphate, and potassium sulfate.
This data refers to the area of land which is equipped to provide water to crops. The units of variables used are as follows, output: value in million rupees, labor: agricultural workers in ‘000s, tractors: number of tractors in ‘000s, pump sets: number of pump sets in ‘000s, chemicals and fertilizers: quantity in ‘000 tonnes, irrigation input: area in ‘000 hectares.
The present study is of empirical nature and the study is intended to utilize both primary and secondary data for past 30 years from published and unpublished records. Secondary sources for data collection were seasons and crop report, economic appraisal of Andhra Pradesh, publications of Central Water Commission, Published and unpublished records of Public Works Department, Census of India, District Statistical Office, Department of Agriculture, and so forth, and the Internet website
The data collected for 40 river basins of Andhra Pradesh were area under each basin, district covered under each basin, area of the district, area covered in the basin, percentage of area covered in the district, percentage of area covered in the basin, cropping pattern and cropping calendar, land use pattern, surface water potential, present and future water demand in the basin area, the storage capacity of the existing reservoirs, total command area, number of tanks and their storage capacity. The following data were collected district wise from various published sources for 30 years (from 1979-80 to 2008-09): production of major crops, input data on gross area sown, gross irrigated area, agricultural laborers and cultivators, number of pumpsets and fertilizer consumption (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium). Output data included the area, production of crops, and the price of outputs. Major crops include 14 agricultural crops, namely, rice, sorghum, pearl millet, maize, finger millet, chickpea, pigeonpea, pulses, groundnut, sesamum, castor, oilseeds, sugarcane, and cotton, and 6 horticultural crops, namely, chillies, turmeric, mango, cashew nut, banana, and tomato.
Even though the performance of the basins could also be influenced by other set of environment-related variables such as extent of water quality changes, number of failed wells, degraded lands, level of nonpoint water pollution, and so forth, time series data of these variables are not available and hence not considered for the present study. But this will form the scope for the future studies.
Data on various input and output variables are available district wise for all the 23 districts from published records for the years 1979-80 to 2008-09. These time series figures are then be apportioned to various basins based on the estimates obtained in step 1 as follows: Let
It can be easily checked that
The above formula provides an elegant method of estimation of figures for each basin. This procedure is applied for converting district-wise values of agricultural output, and all inputs to basin-wise figures.
The summary statistics of output and input variables, namely, crop output, gross-cropped area, gross-irrigated area, NPK intake, labor input, tractors, and pump sets, are presented and discussed below.
From Table
The trends in total agricultural output (in million Rs.) (Figure
Trend in total Agrl. Outputs in river basins of Andhra Pradesh.
Since the gross agricultural output is very much dependent on gross-cropped area, gross-irrigated area and also water yield in the basin, an analysis was carried out to study the trend in the agricultural output (in Rs.) per unit of the above factors. The trends are depicted in Figures
Trend in agricultural output per ha of gross-cropped area.
Trend in output per hectare of GIA.
Total agricultural output per cubic meter of water.
This is obtained by dividing the total agricultural output of the respective basin in each year by the -ropped area of the basin in the same year. The trend shows that the contribution from the 37 basins is uniformly higher than the three major river basins. Further, Godavari basin has higher agricultural output per ha of gross-cropped area compared to Krishna and Pennar basins. The performance of Krishna basin is the least in most of the initial periods and picked up during later years.
The trend indicates that per ha gross-irrigated area output is maximum for Pennar basin followed by Krishna basin. This shows that it will be highly beneficial to increase irrigated area in those two basins.
It was already pointed out that Godavari, Krishna, Pennar, and other basins, respectively, have the 41.96 billion m3, 22.99 billion m3, 2.79 billion m3, and 10.755 billion m3 water yield per year. Assuming that this much quantity of water was available in the basins in each year of the study period, the gross agricultural output per cubic meter of water was computed (Figure
The study used gross-cropped area, gross-irrigated area, NPK consumption, agricultural labourers, tractors, and pumpsets as inputs. Tables
Gross-cropped area (thousand ha)
Basin name | 1979–1988 | 1989–1998 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
Godavari | 3263.62 | 2857.71 | 3056.21 | 47.44 | 1.55 | 3405.66 | 2930.00 | 3156.15 | 45.68 | 1.45 |
Krishna | 4403.71 | 3581.92 | 4022.24 | 2.35 | 0.06 | 4199.98 | 3528.94 | 3928.91 | 2.35 | 0.06 |
Pennar | 2225.40 | 1868.92 | 2082.15 | 0.82 | 0.04 | 2308.57 | 2093.20 | 2224.23 | 0.82 | 0.04 |
Other basins | 4275.31 | 3751.58 | 4001.85 | 1.58 | 0.04 | 4440.75 | 4110.92 | 4318.86 | 1.58 | 0.04 |
| ||||||||||
Basin name | 1999–2008 | 1979–2008 | ||||||||
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
| ||||||||||
Godavari | 3742.87 | 2826.92 | 3300.63 | 84.11 | 2.55 | 3742.87 | 2826.92 | 3171.00 | 39.08 | 1.23 |
Krishna | 4212.28 | 3474.27 | 3860.90 | 2.35 | 0.06 | 4403.71 | 3474.27 | 3937.35 | 2.35 | 0.06 |
Pennar | 2431.75 | 2063.03 | 2259.93 | 0.82 | 0.04 | 2431.75 | 1868.92 | 2188.77 | 0.82 | 0.04 |
Other basins | 4376.33 | 3658.66 | 4131.60 | 1.58 | 0.04 | 4440.75 | 3658.66 | 4150.77 | 1.58 | 0.04 |
Gross-irrigated area (thousand ha)
Basin name | 1979–1988 | 1989–1998 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
Godavari | 1404.31 | 919.17 | 1121.66 | 42.53 | 3.79 | 1675.09 | 1260.15 | 1421.75 | 42.51 | 2.99 |
Krishna | 1389.54 | 986.92 | 1127.02 | 2.35 | 0.21 | 1598.09 | 1215.24 | 1347.43 | 2.35 | 0.17 |
Pennar | 636.89 | 461.22 | 530.91 | 0.82 | 0.15 | 704.00 | 571.18 | 622.53 | 0.82 | 0.13 |
Other basins | 2233.55 | 1762.68 | 1977.54 | 1.58 | 0.08 | 2333.35 | 2135.62 | 2208.87 | 1.58 | 0.07 |
| ||||||||||
Basin name | 1999–2008 | 1979–2008 | ||||||||
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
| ||||||||||
Godavari | 2015.35 | 1300.52 | 1647.02 | 76.84 | 4.67 | 2015.35 | 919.17 | 1396.81 | 50.81 | 3.64 |
Krishna | 1839.88 | 1073.38 | 1446.91 | 2.35 | 0.16 | 1839.88 | 986.92 | 1307.12 | 2.35 | 0.18 |
Pennar | 680.88 | 516.52 | 615.20 | 0.82 | 0.13 | 704.00 | 461.22 | 589.55 | 0.82 | 0.14 |
Other basins | 2469.26 | 1740.51 | 2152.39 | 1.58 | 0.07 | 2469.26 | 1740.51 | 2112.93 | 1.58 | 0.07 |
NPK consumption (thousand Tonnes)
Basin name | 1979–1988 | 1989–1998 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
Godavari | 284.70 | 88.53 | 164.04 | 17.62 | 10.74 | 464.55 | 320.80 | 367.09 | 13.74 | 3.74 |
Krishna | 401.15 | 153.73 | 242.81 | 2.35 | 0.97 | 670.17 | 450.33 | 520.03 | 2.35 | 0.45 |
Pennar | 133.23 | 55.00 | 78.15 | 0.82 | 1.04 | 214.37 | 149.17 | 179.44 | 0.82 | 0.45 |
Other basins | 556.33 | 207.91 | 337.43 | 1.58 | 0.47 | 749.10 | 558.80 | 624.39 | 1.58 | 0.25 |
| ||||||||||
Basin |
1999–2008 | 1979–2008 | ||||||||
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
| ||||||||||
Godavari | 806.90 | 409.77 | 537.00 | 37.91 | 7.06 | 806.90 | 88.53 | 356.04 | 31.65 | 8.89 |
Krishna | 950.54 | 494.99 | 721.30 | 2.35 | 0.33 | 950.54 | 153.73 | 494.71 | 2.35 | 0.47 |
Pennar | 351.11 | 187.66 | 243.02 | 0.82 | 0.34 | 351.11 | 55.00 | 166.87 | 0.82 | 0.49 |
Other basins | 1045.19 | 569.70 | 794.76 | 1.58 | 0.20 | 1045.19 | 207.91 | 585.53 | 1.58 | 0.27 |
Agricultural labourers (thousand workers)
Basin name | 1979–1988 | 1989–1998 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
Godavari | 4463.16 | 3828.02 | 4163.76 | 206.76 | 4.97 | 5196.66 | 4531.24 | 4856.70 | 223.84 | 4.61 |
Krishna | 5036.67 | 4219.71 | 4640.87 | 267.75 | 5.77 | 6032.33 | 5132.10 | 5569.10 | 302.82 | 5.44 |
Pennar | 2762.68 | 2452.69 | 2623.59 | 98.05 | 3.74 | 3125.97 | 2798.47 | 2954.00 | 110.20 | 3.73 |
Other basins | 6360.26 | 5411.19 | 5912.69 | 300.68 | 5.09 | 7444.38 | 6515.70 | 6938.34 | 313.70 | 4.52 |
| ||||||||||
Basin name | 1999–2008 | 1979–2008 | ||||||||
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
| ||||||||||
Godavari | 6061.21 | 5276.83 | 5660.37 | 263.85 | 4.66 | 6061.21 | 5441.20 | 5746.07 | 216.96 | 3.78 |
Krishna | 7231.41 | 6146.75 | 6675.85 | 364.34 | 5.46 | 7231.41 | 6367.81 | 6793.44 | 301.10 | 4.43 |
Pennar | 3606.59 | 3172.57 | 3381.83 | 145.49 | 4.30 | 3606.59 | 3255.39 | 3428.05 | 121.82 | 3.55 |
Other basins | 8791.60 | 7627.92 | 8195.71 | 387.49 | 4.73 | 8791.60 | 7801.86 | 8312.64 | 334.75 | 4.03 |
Tractors (thousands)
Basin name | 1979–1988 | 1989–1998 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
Godavari | 7.73 | 3.08 | 5.37 | 0.47 | 8.69 | 19.45 | 8.61 | 13.75 | 1.15 | 8.37 |
Krishna | 9.93 | 4.02 | 6.45 | 2.35 | 36.39 | 24.43 | 11.32 | 18.15 | 2.35 | 12.93 |
Pennar | 5.26 | 2.07 | 3.49 | 0.82 | 23.38 | 13.51 | 5.97 | 9.74 | 0.82 | 8.38 |
Other basins | 17.04 | 8.04 | 12.22 | 1.58 | 12.91 | 34.67 | 18.90 | 26.79 | 1.58 | 5.89 |
| ||||||||||
Basin name | 1999–2008 | 1979–2008 | ||||||||
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
| ||||||||||
Godavari | 32.44 | 20.95 | 25.44 | 1.22 | 4.79 | 32.44 | 3.08 | 14.86 | 1.63 | 10.96 |
Krishna | 52.22 | 25.65 | 33.97 | 2.35 | 6.91 | 52.22 | 4.02 | 19.52 | 2.35 | 12.02 |
Pennar | 14.56 | 13.09 | 13.51 | 0.82 | 6.04 | 14.56 | 2.07 | 8.91 | 0.82 | 9.16 |
Other basins | 37.02 | 23.08 | 28.65 | 1.58 | 5.50 | 37.02 | 8.04 | 22.55 | 1.58 | 6.99 |
Pump sets (thousands)
Basin name | 1979–1988 | 1989–1998 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
Godavari | 311.52 | 172.97 | 249.35 | 14.47 | 5.80 | 430.47 | 324.77 | 381.42 | 10.89 | 2.86 |
Krishna | 280.19 | 165.38 | 223.24 | 2.35 | 1.05 | 402.10 | 296.80 | 358.63 | 2.35 | 0.65 |
Pennar | 154.74 | 107.00 | 130.69 | 0.82 | 0.62 | 182.07 | 155.97 | 166.99 | 0.82 | 0.49 |
Other Basins | 231.43 | 155.09 | 186.27 | 1.58 | 0.85 | 280.90 | 245.18 | 271.67 | 1.58 | 0.58 |
| ||||||||||
Basin name | 1999–2008 | 1979–2008 | ||||||||
Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | Max | Min | Average | S.D. | C.V. (%) | |
| ||||||||||
Godavari | 658.66 | 442.84 | 540.53 | 22.91 | 4.24 | 658.66 | 172.97 | 390.43 | 24.02 | 6.15 |
Krishna | 1193.52 | 412.19 | 716.80 | 2.35 | 0.33 | 1193.52 | 165.38 | 432.89 | 2.35 | 0.54 |
Pennar | 186.34 | 155.92 | 163.36 | 0.82 | 0.50 | 186.34 | 107.00 | 153.68 | 0.82 | 0.53 |
Other basins | 315.62 | 283.34 | 296.61 | 1.58 | 0.53 | 315.62 | 155.09 | 251.52 | 1.58 | 0.63 |
The results of the average technical efficiency (output oriented) of the 40 river basins are presented in Table
Technical efficiency (TE) of river basins.
Basin | TE | Rank |
---|---|---|
Bahuda | 0.617 | 24 |
Mahendratanya | 0.559 | 33 |
Poondi minor drain | 0.553 | 34 |
Naupada minor drain | 0.560 | 32 |
Vamsadhara | 0.534 | 35 |
Nagavali | 0.515 | 36 |
Pedda Gedda | 0.504 | 38 |
Kandivalasa Gedda | 0.503 | 39 |
Champavathi | 0.508 | 37 |
Gosthani | 0.479 | 40 |
Mathurawada | 0.614 | 26 |
Narva Gedda | 0.611 | 28 |
Anakapalli minor drain | 0.621 | 22 |
Sarada | 0.655 | 21 |
Varaha | 0.615 | 25 |
Tandava | 0.613 | 27 |
Pampa | 0.607 | 29 |
Sudda Gedda | 0.602 | 30 |
Yeleru | 0.620 | 23 |
Godavari | 0.574 | 31 |
Errakalava | 0.747 | 11 |
Thammileru | 0.725 | 14 |
Ramileru | 0.738 | 13 |
Budameru | 0.779 | 8 |
Krishna | 0.725 | 15 |
Romperu | 0.714 | 16 |
Gundlakamma | 0.709 | 17 |
Minor drain between Musi & |
0.699 | 19 |
Musi | 0.700 | 18 |
Paleru | 0.662 | 20 |
Manneru | 0.879 | 1 |
Kandeleru (Chippaleru) | 0.827 | 3 |
Pennar | 0.823 | 4 |
Upputeru | 0.837 | 2 |
Swarnamukhi | 0.798 | 5 |
Kalangi | 0.786 | 6 |
Araniar | 0.777 | 9 |
Koratliar | 0.769 | 10 |
Palar | 0.781 | 7 |
Ponnair | 0.738 | 12 |
Average | 0.658 |
Annual compound growth rates of inputs and agricultural output are provided in Table
Annual growth rates in inputs and outputs in river basins of Andhra Pradesh.
Period | Godavari | Krishna | Pennar | Other basins | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Output | 1979-80 to 88-89 | −3.655 | −0.645 | −1.420 | −2.320 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | −0.994 | −1.667 | −2.144 | −1.909 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 5.875 | 6.570 | 3.557 | 4.286 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 0.250 | 0.714 | −0.535 | −0.555 | |
| |||||
Inputs |
|||||
Gross-cropped area | 1979-80 to 88-89 | −0.052 | −0.628 | −0.227 | 0.258 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 0.189 | −0.862 | 0.095 | −0.024 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 1.439 | 0.000 | 0.913 | 0.509 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 0.392 | −0.236 | 0.394 | 0.167 | |
| |||||
Gross-irrigated area | 1979-80 to 88-89 | 2.146 | 0.541 | 0.060 | 0.779 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 0.929 | 0.094 | 1.356 | 0.704 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 2.553 | 2.807 | 0.424 | 1.348 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 1.915 | 1.205 | 0.731 | 0.467 | |
| |||||
Labour | 1979-80 to 88-89 | 1.656 | 1.928 | 1.237 | 1.691 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 1.534 | 1.812 | 1.237 | 1.493 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 1.552 | 1.819 | 1.430 | 1.559 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 1.551 | 1.837 | 1.279 | 1.640 | |
| |||||
Fertilizer consumption | 1979-80 to 88-89 | 10.051 | 8.655 | 6.264 | 10.786 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 2.893 | 3.965 | 2.896 | 2.116 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 4.893 | 4.911 | 4.591 | 4.190 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 6.230 | 5.711 | 5.766 | 4.668 | |
| |||||
Tractors | 1979-80 to 88-89 | 9.987 | 10.408 | 10.435 | 8.294 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 9.389 | 8.484 | 9.161 | 6.793 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 4.929 | 8.394 | −1.040 | −5.394 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 8.213 | 8.760 | 7.084 | 4.269 | |
| |||||
Pumpsets | 1979-80 to 88-89 | 6.447 | 5.799 | 4.506 | 4.736 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 3.045 | 3.189 | 1.793 | 1.256 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 4.505 | 12.589 | −1.142 | 1.093 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 4.060 | 5.913 | 1.214 | 2.392 |
Total factor productivity analysis using Malmquist index was carried out for all the 40 river basins. Table
This refers to movement of the river basins towards the frontier over time capturing the catch-up phenomena. It relates to how the basins have performed relative to the best practice frontier. An efficiency change greater than 1 implies that the basin is operating closer to the frontier than in previous period while the figure less than 1 implies that the basin is operating farther from the frontier. This component compares the distances of the two observations
There are 14 river basins which have technical efficiency change less than 1 (Table
Total factor productivity changes in river basins.
Basin | Efficiency change | Technical change | TFP change | Rank in terms of TFP change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Bahuda | 0.959 | 1.096 | 1.051 | 40 |
Mahendratanya | 0.958 | 1.112 | 1.065 | 39 |
Poondi minor drain | 0.961 | 1.118 | 1.074 | 38 |
Naupada minor drain | 0.967 | 1.138 | 1.1 | 37 |
Vamsadhara | 0.969 | 1.141 | 1.106 | 34 |
Nagavali | 0.963 | 1.149 | 1.107 | 32 |
Pedda Gedda | 0.962 | 1.149 | 1.105 | 35 |
Kandivalasa Gedda | 0.96 | 1.164 | 1.118 | 30 |
Champavathi | 0.956 | 1.158 | 1.107 | 32 |
Gosthani | 0.959 | 1.16 | 1.112 | 31 |
Mathurawada | 1.028 | 1.226 | 1.259 | 1 |
Narva Gedda | 1.027 | 1.206 | 1.239 | 2 |
Anakapalli minor drain | 1.029 | 1.191 | 1.226 | 3 |
Sarada | 1.029 | 1.189 | 1.224 | 4 |
Varaha | 1.029 | 1.187 | 1.221 | 5 |
Tandava | 1.029 | 1.178 | 1.212 | 7 |
Pampa | 1.027 | 1.184 | 1.216 | 6 |
Sudda Gedda | 1.029 | 1.17 | 1.205 | 9 |
Yeleru | 1.028 | 1.168 | 1.202 | 11 |
Godavari | 1.029 | 1.178 | 1.211 | 8 |
Errakalava | 1.027 | 1.071 | 1.101 | 36 |
Thammileru | 1.025 | 1.095 | 1.122 | 29 |
Ramileru | 1.028 | 1.106 | 1.137 | 27 |
Budameru | 1.021 | 1.112 | 1.136 | 28 |
Krishna | 1.027 | 1.122 | 1.152 | 26 |
Romperu | 1.03 | 1.136 | 1.17 | 22 |
Gundlakamma | 1.029 | 1.145 | 1.178 | 18 |
Minor drain between Musi & |
1.03 | 1.169 | 1.204 | 10 |
Musi | 1.033 | 1.16 | 1.198 | 15 |
Paleru | 1.029 | 1.167 | 1.201 | 12 |
Manneru | 0.998 | 1.164 | 1.162 | 25 |
Kandeleru (Chippaleru) | 0.998 | 1.17 | 1.167 | 24 |
Pennar | 0.999 | 1.171 | 1.169 | 23 |
Upputeru | 1.001 | 1.176 | 1.177 | 19 |
Swarnamukhi | 1.001 | 1.171 | 1.173 | 21 |
Kalangi | 1.000 | 1.177 | 1.177 | 19 |
Araniar | 1.001 | 1.185 | 1.186 | 17 |
Koratliar | 1.003 | 1.195 | 1.199 | 14 |
Palar | 0.999 | 1.194 | 1.193 | 16 |
Ponnair | 1.003 | 1.198 | 1.201 | 12 |
River basins whose technical efficiency changes are less than 1.
Basin | Tech.eff.Change |
---|---|
Bahuda | 0.959 |
Mahendratanya | 0.958 |
Poondi minor drain | 0.961 |
Naupada minor drain | 0.967 |
Vamsadhara | 0.969 |
Nagavali | 0.963 |
Pedda Gedda | 0.962 |
Kandivalasa Gedda | 0.96 |
Champavathi | 0.956 |
Gosthani | 0.959 |
Manneru | 0.998 |
Kandeleru (Chippaleru) | 0.998 |
Pennar | 0.999 |
Palar | 0.999 |
These basins are moving away from the frontier basins every year. For example, consider the Bahuda basin whose technical efficiency change is 0.959. This means that if the distance between the performance of the basin and the frontier basin in current year is
This information on changes in technical efficiency only tells the “catch-up” part of the productivity story. TFP change can also appear in the form of technical change (or frontier shift). This refers to shift of the best practice frontier capturing innovations. This is affected by new technologies in agricultural or new innovations like high yielding varieties or also changes in the economic policies and regulations on the environment. According to the result presented in Table
The total factor productivity change is an important yardstick. All the river basins have TFP change greater than 1 (Figure
Ranks of the river basins in terms of cumulative TFP indices.
Godavari | Krishna | Pennar | Other Basins | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rank 1 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
Rank 2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
Rank 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 |
Rank 4 | 3 | 22 | 3 | 0 |
Trend in total factor productivity indices in the river basins during 1979-80 to 2008-09.
In terms of cumulative TFP indices, Godavari and Pennar basins have much higher values than others. Table
Out of the 28 years, in terms of cumulative TFP indices, Godavari basin ranked 1, 14 times, while Pennar ranked 1, 12 times. Krishna basin ranked 4, 22 times. It was already pointed out that in terms of absolute values of TFP indices Godavari and Pennar have slightly better performance than Krishna. Thus these two basins have performed better than Krishna basin in terms of total factor productivity growth. Table
Total factor productivity growth in river basins.
Period | Godavari | Krishna | Pennar | Other Basins | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
TFP growth | 1979-80 to 88-89 | −9.850 | −10.306 | 0.148 | −7.216 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 17.009 | 25.149 | 19.244 | 14.439 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 22.834 | 22.281 | 19.567 | 13.129 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 0.588 | −0.021 | 0.009 | 0.008 | |
| |||||
Technical change | 1979-80 to 88-89 | −7.021 | −6.801 | −2.502 | −6.214 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | 17.949 | 18.867 | 17.329 | 16.520 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 17.111 | 17.669 | 17.582 | 17.112 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 0.427 | 0.270 | −0.224 | 0.226 | |
| |||||
Efficiency change | 1979-80 to 88-89 | −3.038 | −3.760 | 2.724 | −1.068 |
1989-90 to 98-99 | −0.782 | 5.284 | 1.632 | −1.786 | |
1999-00 to 2008-09 | 4.934 | 3.904 | 1.682 | −3.398 | |
1979-80 to 2008-09 | 0.153 | −0.289 | 0.233 | −0.218 |
Contribution of TFP, its components and inputs to agricultural growth in river basins (in percentage).
1979-80 to 88-89 | 1989-90 to 98-99 | 1999-00 to 2008-09 | 1979-80 to 2008-09 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Godavari | Output growth rate | −3.7 | −1.0 | 5.9 | 0.3 |
TFP growth rate | −9.8 | 17.0 | 22.8 | 0.6 | |
Tech change growth rate | −7.0 | 17.9 | 17.1 | 0.4 | |
(a) Contribution of TFP | 269.5 | −1711.1 | 388.7 | 235.2 | |
(i) Contribution of technical |
192.1 | −1805.6 | 291.2 | 170.9 | |
(ii) Contribution of efficiency |
77.4 | 94.5 | 97.4 | 64.3 | |
(b) Contribution of Inputs | −169.5 | 1811.1 | −288.7 | −135.2 | |
| |||||
Krishna | Output growth rate | −0.6 | −1.7 | 6.6 | 0.7 |
TFP growth rate | −10.3 | 25.1 | 22.3 | 0.0 | |
Tech change growth rate | −6.8 | 18.9 | 17.7 | 0.3 | |
(a) Contribution of TFP | 1597.1 | −1508.7 | 339.1 | −3.0 | |
(i) Contribution of technical |
1053.9 | −1131.8 | 268.9 | 37.8 | |
(ii) Contribution of efficiency |
543.2 | −376.8 | 70.2 | −40.8 | |
(b) Contribution of Inputs | −1497.1 | 1608.7 | −239.1 | 103.0 | |
| |||||
Pennar | Output growth rate | −1.4 | −2.1 | 3.6 | −0.5 |
TFP growth rate | 0.1 | 19.2 | 19.6 | 0.0 | |
Tech change growth rate | −2.5 | 17.3 | 17.6 | −0.2 | |
(a) Contribution of TFP | −10.5 | −897.5 | 550.1 | −1.6 | |
(i) Contribution of technical |
176.3 | −808.2 | 494.3 | 42.0 | |
(ii) Contribution of efficiency |
−186.7 | −89.3 | 55.8 | −43.6 | |
(b) Contribution of inputs | 110.5 | 997.5 | −450.1 | 101.6 | |
| |||||
Other basins | Output growth rate | −2.3 | −1.9 | 4.3 | −0.6 |
TFP growth rate | −7.2 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 0.0 | |
Tech change growth rate | −6.2 | 16.5 | 17.1 | 0.2 | |
(a) Contribution of TFP | 311.0 | −756.5 | 306.4 | −1.4 | |
(i) Contribution of technical |
267.9 | −865.6 | 399.3 | −40.7 | |
(ii) Contribution of efficiency change | 43.2 | 109.1 | −92.9 | 39.3 | |
(b) Contribution of inputs | −211.0 | 856.5 | −206.4 | 101.4 |
Table
During the second decade (1989-90 to 98-99), the contribution is from inputs only and TFP growth has negative contribution. During the three decades, in Godavari basin, agricultural growth is mostly due to TFP growth. In the remaining basins, contribution of inputs is about 101% to 103%. Further, in general, given the contribution of TFP, the share of efficiency change is dominated by technical change in all the periods and in all the basins (Figure
Contribution of technical change and efficiency change to TFP.
Krishna and Godavari basins contribute more or less equally to total agricultural output in all the years from 1984-85. With an expected annual water yield of only 6.65% of Godavari basin, the 37 basins have contributed much higher output in the entire three decades. Among the major basins, Godavari basin has higher agricultural output per ha of gross-cropped area compared to Krishna and Pennar basins. The total agricultural output per ha of gross-irrigated area and output per cubic meter of water are maximum for Pennar basin followed by Krishna basin.
Average technical efficiency of all the basins is only 66% implying that only 66% of the maximum possible outputs have been produced by the basins using the current level of inputs. The first three ranks of the efficiencies are occupied by other basins, namely, Manneru (0.879), Upputeru (0.837) and Kandeleru (0.827), and Godavari and Krishna with respective efficiencies of 0.574 and 0.725 occupy 32nd and 15th ranks, while the third largest basin Pennar with an efficiency of 0.823 has rank 4.
In all the basins there was a decline in growth of agricultural output during the first two decades, namely, 1979-80 to 1988-89 and it had picked up in the last decade (1999-2000). Krishna basin has the highest growth rate (6.57%) followed by Godavari (5.875%) during this period. These two basins show the highest annual growth rates in gross-irrigated area. Growth rate of labour stabilized around 1.5% in all the basins. Fertilizer consumption showed annual growth rate of around 5% in all the basins during the three decades. Similar trend existed in terms of the other two inputs, namely, tractors and pump sets except at Pennar basin where there is a decline in the growth rate of these inputs during the last decade.
All the river basins have TFP change greater than 1 indicating progress in agricultural productivity in all the basins. Godavari, Krishna, and Pennar basins have TFP changes 1.211, 1.152, and 1.169, respectively, contributed by both technical efficiency change and technical change. Out of the 40 river basins, 14 river basins have technical efficiency change less than 1 indicating decline in TFP growth and the figures for Godavari, Krishna, and Pennar basins are, respectively, 1.029, 1.027 and 0.999. In the case of technical change, all the 40 river basins have changes greater than 1 implying that there is shift in production frontier over years. This shows the effectiveness of use of modern technology in agriculture in Andhra Pradesh.
Regarding the agricultural output growth, the contribution is mainly from total factor productivity and the contribution from inputs is negative during the first decade (1979-80 to 88-89) in all basins (except Pennar) and during the third decade (1999-00 to 2008-09) whereas during the second decade (1989-90 to 98-99) the contribution is from inputs only. Overall, in Godavari basin agricultural growth is due to TFP growth whereas contribution from inputs is negative. In the remaining basins, inputs have about 101% to 103% of contribution to agricultural growth and TFP contribution is negative but negligible. In general, within the TFP, technical change contributed more than technical efficiency change.
Looking at the future options for increasing the agricultural output in the river basins, it is important to focus on improving the TFP growth compared to increasing the quantities of physical inputs. As revealed in the study, although all the basins have shifted towards frontier, about 35% of them still need to be improved in efficiency of the input use. This can be achieved through intensified agricultural extension programs in using the modern agriculture and irrigation technologies, specifically converging of the different agricultural development programs and strengthening the capacity building programs at the village level which will include crop management programs like SRI. Water management programs like alternate wetting and drying for paddy and micro irrigation for horticultural crops are important.
This paper is based on data collected and analysed as part of Climarice 2 project (2010–2013) (